Bayesian updating definition dating setes
An agent operating under such a decision theory uses the concepts of Bayesian statistics to estimate the expected value of its actions, and update its expectations based on new information.These agents can and are usually referred to as estimators.This contrasts with frequentist inference, the classical probability interpretation, where conclusions about an experiment are drawn from a set of repetitions of such experience, each producing statistically independent results.For a frequentist, a probability function would be a simple distribution function with no special meaning.
Additionally, the course will introduce credible regions, Bayesian comparisons of means and proportions, Bayesian regression and inference using multiple models, and discussion of Bayesian prediction.
It’s a bit like a weighted average, and helps us compare against the overall chance of a positive result.
In our case, Pr(X) gets really large because of the potential for false positives.
From the perspective of Bayesian decision theory, any kind of probability distribution - such as the distribution for tomorrow's weather - represents a prior distribution.
That is, it represents how we expect today the weather is going to be tomorrow.